Title: Here and Now for Thursday, April 9, 2009

" Here now is a production of WBUR Boston in association with the BBC world service and PRI."

" I'm Deborah Becker in for Robin Young it's hearing now. FBI hostage negotiators are now working released the US military to try to end the standoff with the Somali pirates who hijacked the US flagged cargo ship -- Alabama yesterday -- Captain Richard Phillips from Vermont is being held captive in a small lifeboat in the Indian Ocean after he offered himself to the pirates in exchange for the release of the ship. The Pentagon has also using surveillance aircraft and other equipment to monitor that standoff and a navy warship is nearby. Piracy is the most profitable industry in Somalia more than 100 attacks just last year grossed eighty million dollars in ransom so far this year Somali pirates have hijacked 66. Ships. Joining us from London is Roger Middleton and he's a consultant researcher with the foreign policy think tank Chatham house and he specializes in Somalia. And Roger tell us how to be small boats carrying just a handful of pirates really managed to take over these enormous vessels."

" The way to Paris operated to get this Spartan nation whether -- about -- kept it for example they use what's known as a mother ship which could be fishing vessel that they've kept it. That they used to that indication when they see it shipped they want to go off so they get pregnant that's more. Speed pipes and they chasing captured and normally they take two boats they come in on either side of the pence amendment. And when they get close enough states trade books and and of ropes and ladders. Out the side of the ship and trying timeout as quickly as possible and it's a very difficult and risky maneuver of course. But once you have one -- with a gun onboard. A complete view what is the level of the game and then the arts it generally control of the ship and it's easier for them to help their friends. Up on board."

" And the big question here as -- way it counties crewmembers onboard these ships have guns."

" There's a number of very good reasons why they wouldn't one that's. There's a real concern that at the -- the -- I grew up primarily motivated by desire to think very judgments of money. How web nation -- to -- the ships rather than to kill anybody. If you stop firing back at them as a very real danger of the partridge special agent killed and we could see seat various communities that -- should be worrying development. I the second to reason that as a number of lead. Legal concerns about Iraq and that's it could be construed as arms smuggling -- money was his which covered by UN arms about it. It could also be -- worries about then jurisdiction if crewmembers defending themselves kill somebody. And it turns out that wasn't -- what's the legal position that there are a number of good reasons why. -- ships to not arm themselves not least of course is that the merchant -- I'm not trained military personnel."

" this affairs detect any US flag and -- that's what it's getting so much attention we also hear that fourteen other ships that are are actually being held right now by pirates and they they certainly don't have. This amount of attention around the world but I am wondering why not why haven't they gone -- US ships in the past."

" Well I thought that there have been avoiding them just my -- not -- in the United States. The most commercial ships of fact -- like -- countryside that's -- regulations are much Lisa."

" Let's go back to the arming of the crew members I've read -- the Chinese have their ships are attacked by pirates they used Molotov cocktails that."

" One instance where the -- decided to fight back and unfortunately for them the -- the pirates kept them wait that long enough. Pro German helicopter took rights and bring them military assistants but is not generally recommended means of defending itself very dangerous apartment --"

" When you look at the situation of -- say things ending here."

" Well wait a typical -- stated it's a three scenarios I guess that the best case could be that the pirates. Besides this is too dangerous how and the captain -- it to the American warship that's on stations and make their way -- second best situation is that they're able to. Negotiate a ransom thing -- released. And the worst case of course would be if they if they fight these these the warship and then people get killed."

" Well Roger Middleton consultant researcher with the foreign policy think tank Chatham house who specializes in Somalia thanks very much for speaking with us. We turn -- to Clint van -- he's the former chief hostage negotiator for the FBI and he started the program that trained FBI negotiators to handle overseas hostage takings involving US citizens. Mr. van -- how do you think the negotiators will be handling this particular incident."

" Well. Speed difference in this witnesses said number one we know where the kidnappers and we know where the hostages. -- in the ocean about 300 miles were told off the coast of Somalia. So that's a good thing far the military for the FBI to know. Challenger course is set to captain's plight is still in jeopardy shall we negotiators will. Through the navy attempt to destroy or some type of dialogue with the hostage takers either on -- on the lifeboat themselves where they're holding a captain or. Through whoever is in charge of the kidnappers to pirates on --"

" And what sort of things would you think that they might be looking for a specifically mean what's your overall -- understand your overall objective is probably make sure that the captain is safe but Howell how do you sort of strategize to figure out the best we could do that I am assuming it to make some very quick decisions."

" Well we do we've got true at least to parallel situations going on number one -- there's issues suggest the safe return of captain Paul which is -- adamant. Number true though is we have to be very careful we don't shut me off precedent for the pirates. Where they think they know that no matter we help warships. Spy planes helicopters. And navy seals in the area. That we're going to roll over every time and therefore. Open up anti. Are shipped to include and the EU Russia to the potential of hijacking so it's a very fine line negotiators are gonna have to walk."

" Now and religious typically how is something like this even possible we're talking about a small ship sort of out in the middle of the ocean is there is -- surveillance over head and told. And apparently the."

" Yeah well we've got the -- upwards of four piracy and captain Phillips and -- lifeboat that they use to like get away from the ship that they originally hijacked. That's not a -- so. We we know pirates normally they helped at least shelf full capability they have satellite told capability and a week after or course been navy. Could by parachute or otherwise drop some type of communication package. Close to. The the small boat holding a pirates -- captain Phillips and we can use that destroy our court we. -- as a negotiator we have to have dialogue we have to have someplace distort. The pirates are going to demand that the normal three things that three demands secure always get they're gonna want money. They're gonna want some means of escape a new boat gasoline something like that and are going to want a promise or we're going to let them go. The negotiators are going to be. Working very hard number one to get captain Phillips released safely number two of course. We'd like to apprehend. The pirates realizing that it it has been for a long time -- crime. To commit an act like this against US citizen which can't be tried in US district court in the United States sort best case editorial. This is -- released at a rest of the hostage takers and bring them back to the United States try them in federal court. For this crime against an American."

" Bringing the FBI into a situation like this into these negotiations unusual step."

" Well pick up the FBI negotiators for years have been deployed overseas in kidnappers of US citizens to choose earlier relatively quiet things done in concert with the State Department backed -- I've done a multiple times and we've sent negotiators in harm's way multiple times to FBI agents they have the training they have the experience. And again. We worked with navy seals we work with army delta we've worked with other national and international counterterrorism teams so it's not. Unusual. That there are going it's somewhat usual that we know about it."

" Do you think that -- likely scenario here I'm guessing here obviously you're the expert but if they do think -- likely scenario would be going into these negotiations you have to immediately determine whether it's negotiable for you as a negotiator to achieve your objectives and that would be the safe release of the captain and whether you're going to be able to apprehend. These these hostage takers and if you can't do that in if you immediately decide you can't what do you do."

" Well then our only choice -- military intervention and you know we have the capability I mean we have a hammer that can you know crusher and out of we have to their debate -- obviously all the pirates out of the water. You know we have navy seals in the area they have sharpshooters snipers who could probably take out. The pirates have to two true but any time you go tactical in the situation like we know statistically probably. 8090%. Of the time that I hostages is injured is either when he that you Hershey is first taken hostage. Or when we use tactical forces to try to rescue them so we'll do everything we can't to engage in dialogue the question as to me. Will we pull all India the you know partnerships or any of the other kidnapped our -- hijacked ships. That we're told are under way -- off the coast of Somalia heading into where the kidnappers are. Or are we going to allow them to get on stations so to speak. And at that point. The up pirates may try to transfer the caption from that -- lifeboat. Too much larger -- we going to let something like that take place we going to stand by and watch it as long as we think the captains say. Or at that point we going to intervene and deal with the consequences."

" Clint van Zandt former chief hostage negotiator for the FBI he started the program -- trains FBI negotiators to handle overseas hostage takings involving US citizens mr. -- and thanks very much for speaking with us. We turn -- to Demetris have a step -- he's pentagon and intelligence correspondent for the Financial Times. And -- is the Defense Department indicating what it might do if more pirate ships move toward daylight photo possibly try to get captain Phillips to another ship that we have we heard much from US officials."

" You know Deborah that the very quiet about this to divert to the delicate situation further for the US Canadian how to deal situations like this. I think it will be real test is this part to try and transfer the captain to another ships have authentic and also about. How to deal that the that the Pentagon has been very quiet they don't want to talk with any operations cement plant."

" Okay so no public statements it also far. Bottom what they would do -- and so what's going on there as far as you know rhino it's our understanding navy team has boarded the ship apparently the cargo ship the immersed Alabama which the pirates seized yesterday it would you know."

" Are disarming of that there may be imported shipments starting to leave the region possibly heading toward Mombasa but that's not clear. So you -- left what is the four parts -- lifeboat which seems to be out of fuel. Stranded in the middle of the seat which he won hostage and other questions how -- the military. And they're SPR hostage negotiators on the scene Howard didn't do this."

" And so it would seem that is the primary objective anyway would be for these guys did to get off of that -- to get some fuel food or something."

" Well -- get a troops as well they probably have more bargaining power right now instead of the big ships in twenty -- they have. One little vote among American hostage -- American hostages probably big prize and that's. The American military could not very careful not to do that they do it do not want to hop that Def. Of the US citizens out of this incident it's."

" Can you give us a visual if you will and we hear that -- is now apparently moving from the scene a lifeboat is is stranded with a four hostages in the captain onboard and then there's the USS Bainbridge switches the ship that arrived. Near both of these votes earlier today how far away -- they can they see each other what what does it."

" Exactly how far there are the people on the same which is saying they are within they -- they concede the boat but the parts are into the camped out far."

" This is president Barack Obama's first national security challenge if you will -- end I think that the big question is is as a criminal act on the part of these territories -- terrorist act mean his deceit to decide which way to go here and in. What sort of hints are you getting from the White House -- in Washington about how. The Obama administration respond."

" What's -- particular -- that mom and I don't think they're thinking edits that as the terrorists and so -- I think this is piracy it's a hostage situations. But it's difficult because in addition to this American -- and you also have to. American journalists are detained in North Korea you -- say an American journalist has been accused of espionage in Iran and actually three different things talking the same time it's defensive."

" But the folks all of them. Aren't present Obama as a way that you do it's what Americans are captured or detained by the country's -- like just."

" Okay -- have a staff of the Pentagon and intelligence correspondent for the Financial Times thanks very much for speaking events -- Coming up later in the show trouble at the New York Times is America's flagship newspaper going to survive second minute. Here now."

" Funding for here and now comes from the math works creators of Matt lab and simulate technical computing software. Dedicated to accelerating the pace of discovery in engineering and science worldwide on the web at math works dot com."

" Welcome back. If fears scrambling to finish your taxes and navigate your way through this year's major tax -- changes we've got some help for you Wall Street Journal senior special writer Tom Herman is our go to guy when it comes to taxes and Tom let's start with one of the more confusing issues the recovery rebate credit and that's the -- that was sent out to about. Well 120 million Americans as part of last year's economic recovery package but it turns out people who didn't qualify last year still have a chance to get that money can you explain."

" this is the item that's caused the most confusion on this year's texture and the heiress told me. About 15% of all the returns were filed earlier this year made mistakes. And I'm not surprised it's really confusing it sounds simple it's fair to help millions of people. Who didn't get the full economic stimulus payment that was sit out last year. Now they might be eligible for some are all of that additional amount because there's circumstances change for instance maybe you lost their job last year. Or maybe that he had a child or maybe didn't have to -- recorded all. That lying on your return call recovery rebate credit does not mean that when you got blisters taxable I've gotten tons of email about that. That money that list here is not taxable the -- and their transistors just to get more for people were eligible for more and didn't get it."

" Last year so basically it's their income has to -- it powerful memories and but essentially to try to get them rebates and they would get at this."

" That's right so that's why if you future income fell sharply. In 2008 you might qualify evenly didn't for the prior year period it's confusing a lot of people who."

" What's so it's the second most common thing you're hearing a lot of questions and confusion that."

" On getting a lot of questions about this the home buyer credit because the largest changed and oddly enough even -- the largest changed this year. Taxpayers have a choice of taking out credit on these -- return or last year's return if they bought a home this year so it's confusing the way to check the status is to go in the Harris website which is RS dot gov. And look for the new form 5405. In short. Even if you think you may not sound like your first time home -- you might be eligible for this credit and it's a lot of money. What about deductions her statement the real estate taxes you can always deduct those if you -- but there -- some changes there too this year the good old standard deduction is looking better than ever because first thought that two thirds of all -- claim. The standard deductions each year instead of itemize. This year if you claim the standard deduction you can take two additional amounts that you could claim an additional amount for your state and local real estate taxes. Up to 500 dollars for a thousand dollars for married couples filing jointly that's new and you could also claim an additional amount on the introduction. If you admit disaster losses since he moved in the place it was a federally declared disaster. And so that's on top of the regular standard deduction."

" that job search expenses mean people obviously are filing taxes now and in the picture of their economic picture of me changed dramatically. Even since December so. What can be deducted for jobs -- expenses."

" That's a great question because a lot of people don't realize that they can deduct job search expenses such as a resonate preparation or certain travels expenses. Even if you don't land that job. Now there are some limits are meant that you can't deduct any job search expenses if you're looking for work for the first time. So I would rule -- college kids that you also can't deduct job search expenses. If you're looking for a job in new occupation but if you're a teacher you lost your job you're looking for another teaching jobs those job search expenses typically would be deductible."

" What is that."

" Folks severance packages. Does it often dump folks into another tax bracket because absolutely I certainly can't a lot of tax credits and deductions. Are only there if your income is below a certain level on that level varies depending on the item that we're talking about so yes if you get a large severance package or if you're lucky enough to get a bonus. That can actually drive up your taxes on a lot of levels is there any -- can do about that what you recommend again if possible it in this is a nice problem to have but if possible. You buy one try and spread those payments out over a few years now the risk -- of course is if you're not sure if your employers solid and in that case who want to take the money right away never ever do anything just for tax purposes but if you're confident that your employers going to be there. And you do your taxes and -- you're paying a lot more. You might -- if it's possible to spread out the -- few years with a severance stuff it's too late to do that for 2008. And you could certainly do it for 2009."

" The IRS also. Decided to make some changes are folks who are victims of financial fraud. Like Bernie Madoff Bernard Madoff Ponzi scheme."

" That's right the general rule is if you invested directly with Bernie -- you can deduct up to 95%. Of your investment. Which after of course attract the amount of any recovery in the years that he discovered the loss of any recovery might get from insurance or what's called septic which is the securities investor protection corporation. Now there's a special rule. That applies to investors who were suing people other than the promoters such as Madoff and those cases the liver typically is 75%. Now lot of people -- that is -- to me much good my losses were so huge. Can't use them up but actually you can because the losses can be. In most cases carried back as many as five years for many people and ahead for twenty years."

" So overall it's -- there you know there's some significant changes here and certainly the economy has you know affected a significant number of people on top of all that. I think is the best advice is telling me she gets them. Professional advice when -- taxes this year."

" That's absolutely right Debra -- my favorite quotes from -- Rogers decades ago will Rogers said. When your finished -- true even if you're trying your absolute best you don't know with the end if you're crook for a martyr. And that's when the laws were much simpler than they are today that was before this thing called the alternate minimum tax was streamed up. If you're subject to Alternative Minimum Tax you gotta be crazy trying to do that on -- the paperwork is absolutely it's mind numbing in the complex. But that's one area -- tax software can help out. I don't even trust -- like to go to -- on top of the software. Just to make sure I've forgotten anything because. The laws changed so often and they're so complex."

" last became a senior special writer Tom Herman joining us from NPR's New York bureau -- thanks very much. My pleasure -- Tomorrow on here and now eleven years after the Good Friday accord does new violence threatens the fragile peace in northern Ireland that's tomorrow. Still ahead today that the recession affecting musically prefer a comparison of billboard hits in the S&P 500. After the news here now."

" For the millions of people who live in China's countryside health insurance is a rare luxury so much so that getting sick can be a death sentence. The government is trying to set up health insurance for farmers about their plan won't help many of those who are already -- the BBC's Clinton Somerville reports from John king in southwestern China."

" The Ling -- can take some Simone peeks his tiny scrap of land. -- who's just enough to feed his family."

" His kitchen shield there. The -- pigs."

" In the single room in an ancient communal farm how nice it must be at least 200 years old. The walls are blackened with soot and adopt floor. This year in this room. That he -- his son has been very sick. To -- to -- the hospital bills he did the unthinkable. And then move on."

" Punish senator we can Ugandan when I abandoned my son I thought to that there was nothing I can do."

" I didn't have money to help him get treatment so I abandoned him at the hospital and the pretended I never had a -- He -- he had little choice but to leave. When Morton brilliant term it'll run through when wintertime we weren't at hospitals in Chongqing and and I said to him so we don't. I'm going home. How to spend it pretty much auto my money abroad. He asked me if I had to go back home to the -- Abundant in the city stranger to Nickelodeon. It's -- he can put him. The fi channel has released thousands of titans facility on a scale."

" You'll go -- will not happen celestial poetry."

" I didn't think you -- and I'm sure he would have died. I think a person's life is very valuable tool I can always make money even though I don't make much I sort of with hardware country gets him treats it. But I didn't realize that the medicine will be so expend."

" It. Regular and extensive blood transfusions. Keeping some real life from night. He urgently needs a bone marrow transplant."

" Thousands who belongs among school. When I was offended I feel very sad but afterwards I thought things that are installed on blaming my -- my family really has no money and we are so -- that I can only blame myself for having this illness."

" the government is promising to make trips to hospital less painful. I'm the oldest two vital national health insurance scheme for foremost is being established. For reasons of -- hospitals and clinics to be built. Here in China if people suddenly have -- an operation. They tend to go into the hospital paid cash out their partner. You know and so that's very difficult -- bullets as the director of the World Bank in China. Means first we get to save up a lot because you don't know what's gonna happen you don't know how much it's going to -- and then that depending on what has Shockey can wipe out receiving very quickly. So it's it very important for people's welfare. To have a well functioning health system and basically some kind of public or private insurance. The scheme comes too late for -- so fondly -- we owns illness has pushed them deeper into polluting. And casts a shadow over the future of the system to a phone."

" How many mile -- Lucius Allen momma -- look completely relies on my thought that if my father leaves that all the work her home Constance and -- If he stays how hard he can't money. And I wouldn't have money to go to school. Every time my faith in my front that that I want to go out to work. He gets really upset I would have to quit school. I would really like to go back to school by -- a situation my taxes in the hands and I don't really know what do."

" And it's this terrible -- that the government wants to end his hopes that this health system grows and choose. Getting sick in China no longer means the disappearance of a lifetime's worth of savings put the lost a lot of them."

" And that report from the BBC's Quentin Somerville and southwestern China. Back in just a bit with more news here in them."

" Well at first it looked like a pretty good deal in 1993 the New York Times purchased the Boston Globe for one point one billion dollars and the globe made money for years. But then circulation and advertising revenue plunged for the entire newspaper industry. And according to union leaders the globe could lose 85 million dollars this year at times is threatening to pull the plug and less the -- unions conceded twenty million dollars in cuts. According to journalist Mark Bowden the decision to -- the globe is just one of several bad business moves made by fourth generation New York Times publisher Arthur Sulzberger junior and now Bowden says the times is throwing everything overboard to try to save the mother ship. Band's profile of -- appears in this month's Vanity Fair and it's not a flattering picture of mark you say Sulzberger is in over his head running the family business and part of the problem is that he believes journalism settles."

" That's right the I think he is dedicated to some very. Admirable but faulty principles. Certainly admirable journalistic principles default -- business ones. And I think in fact Carter was groomed to preside. Over a fairly stable and successful. Institution and had the New York Times sailed into the 21 century without encountering that China's. Major changes that are going on in you I think would have been an ideal and perfectly. Suitable. Chairman and publisher of the newspaper. But I think given the realities that he faces that the idea maintaining. The integrity of the New York Times above all else still Serbs and."

" Think you know these are tough times for newspapers mean how many publishers newspaper publishers are doing it right railing."

" There are very many it's a hard problem but I think what it. -- man. Is someone who is extremely. Flexible and creative and willing to break -- The traditional way of doing things."

" And why is peanuts that personal -- is nothing extremely flexible creative person that might be needed here."

" I have not seen the kind of in addition that you would hope to see you know an institution that's really threatens the New York Times has done some things extremely well but. For instance creating a digital presence a web site which is I think the probably the best. The newspaper web sites have been created but that in itself. He is I think it demonstration. Really traditional thinking and it illustrates I think lies. The times is not going to make it and lots of starts doing some things really dramatically differently."

" In LA and it sounds almost funny in a way because so Romania folks particularly newspaper folks and former newspaper folks lament the fact that there isn't premium placed on the journalism. All the time. And and you're saying no I understand he is he is actually someone who agrees that the journalism. Is it's really and should be a priority of what we do here but he needs to balance that."

" Patterns that what -- what you it's."

" I just think it's a sinking ship -- You know he's there ought to be some pretty dramatic steps being taken to figure out how to make. Journalism pays for itself so the kind of inhibitions that need to be made. Are those that create new and different. Revenue flows such as start charging for content or. Creating micro payment schemes or or working -- partnerships with the the big search engine companies so that you. Make a little bit of money for everybody who links to one of your stories. It's kind of late in the game and I think Arthur Sulzberger is not the only one who has failed to adjust to rapidly enough."

" You know there are and there are many folks have been talking about two about this year in particular here being in Boston where here -- because of the Boston -- situation in talking about. -- bunch of different options that might be available to keep the globe viable for example said a group of investors get together who. My hit university backing to do something to make a newspaper Maurer financially sound at least to get through this still. -- better business model is is come up with at least or. Perhaps a group of investors and a locally owned newspaper would be something better for the community and maybe that's what we're all going to end up going back to because that was really the only way that. A newspaper could work I mean DTC where the future of newspapers might go for a moment."

" All the things you mentioned there are are likely. Steps before. -- sort of business model can emerge. On the Internet I think there's no doubt. The future of newspapers is on line. The leader of the crisis in their revenue crisis in newspapers is happening very rapidly. There's not enough time to waste so that business model to -- so I think if our great news in journalistic organizations like the Boston Globe like. My newspaper the Philadelphia inquirer which is in bankruptcy court were there for 25 years -- So write -- column for the men like. The New York Times if if they're going to make it. In the interim I think of Philanthropic model is. Probably what will need to happen. And that might be universities and might be trusts that might be very well seek. Individuals that might be corporations like Google or. You know Rupert Murdoch got a pretty successful journalism company. But those of that I think the ways that is going to have to go."

" So let's talk about the cells -- model again just for a moment a week if we look at this cases of Arthur Sulzberger junior right now who's -- at the Helm of the New York Times and -- in in the whole sort of Petri. Of him leaving getting their position I mean is there something to be said that perhaps that that was one of the reasons. Why this may not worked well in your opinion in -- may be less -- changed."

" Yeah I think that's the case -- I I personally couldn't do. What I think needs to be done and that they are trying so I don't think it's -- Arthur Sulzberger to. Harshly for me to say that I don't think. She has that level of -- business and in financial acumen. There aren't that many people who do."

" Your -- know of anybody who does have the necessary. Acumen to do this or have you seen an example of a newspaper that it. Seems to be at least on the path of getting --"

" No I haven't. I do think that the Washington Post which is weathering this crisis better. That Linear terms is doing so because the that the Graham's family that owns the post. I had a habit of pointing. Top level business minds to their board. So they had Warren Buffett to and they had Barry -- and people like got on their corporate board crew advise them years ago to diversify. Its. So that if there was a problem with the newspaper business they would have revenue streams. From other areas so they purchased Kaplan incorporated. That is extremely profitable and that's enabled the Washington Post to absorb. It's newspaper losses through this. Very difficult period you know of the New York Times company to contrast that is one that is very closely held. By the family and they've always valued the their commitment to great journalism over. A commitment to sort of creative. Financial business leadership."

" Mark bowden's article about near times publisher Arthur Sulzberger junior appears in the April issue of Vanity Fair magazine and that of course is the issue is supermodel Gisele on the cover and talking about her marriage to. New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady which is big news here is anybody reading -- reading X or."

" She's basically wearing her hands the kitchen. It's -- get past those pictures there's some degree him."

" and an arena thanks very much. But you can read the New York Times and other newspapers on the Kindle to Amazon's updated electronic reader and and talk about post modern you can read a Stephen King story about the -- On the candle and it can even read it --"

" The Kindle was in his hand -- take it not even as he had been denying its power over them. Patty Dunn. I refused spent the rest of the -- are looking into that thing he said and refused Gomez."

" Tomorrow -- publishers are threatened by that robotics voice and by Google's bid to digitize the world's libraries second minutes here now."

" Welcome back. They get from the news that it's."

" Yeah this the Black Eyed -- boom -- Powell is number one on billboard's hot 100 chart followed by a lady got gusts poker face and flown right -- right ground. These songs at the top of the billboard charts say something about the economy our next guest says yes. Fill -- assistant professor of finance and risk engineering at the Polytechnic institute at new York university and he joins us from PMP studios in Stamford Connecticut welcome thank you thanks for having me I am standing elected at more than 5000. Hit sons from a half century billboard charts and you measure them against the S&P 500 stock index."

" When compared worthy the variants of the S&P 500. And I compared to the average of those variants of each song. The -- is how much each number bounces around relative to the average so in the stock market for example 2008 would you say it was a a high variance here are low variance here -- it. Right it was because it bounced around a lot relative to its average in the same thing with the song -- there's this concept called the beat variance. It measures not the average beaten -- how fast or slow song used but how much the -- changes over time. In the same way the market variances high means that the returns are changing a high beat variants and a song means the beat is changing for -- it's. And it in another way of thinking about it kind of loosely as the sun is more complex as a higher beat -- it's the same way you might say. A market is more complex of it has higher variance and it's not just of 1% every day."

" Okay so when -- and then Martin when there's a high rate of various in the market what happens with music. What do you think would have would be your guess now my guess would be that if things are bouncing around a lot of people would listen to music that's bouncing around a lot because it would be consistent."

" That's exactly what I thought would happen in -- that we were both wrong it's exactly the opposite. When the market volatility is height. It's almost like in this ski people tend to listen to much simpler music like in the eighties at the mid eighties was pretty high of market volatility and people listened to very steady music things like hot economy. Local -- on the whole time. And obviously what happened in October 19 1987 black Monday was that the market crash 20%. And those who attend sigma event is the biggest one day percentage crashing history. And in the next -- bounce back and that you know that whole week is a very volatile week that whole year was the second was able -- a year second only to last year."

" So that was the eighties when there's a lot of -- going on so basically what we're not talking about why this might be happening necessarily all -- talking about -- that you definitely found this. This co relation between. What's happening with the stock index and what's happening with popular beats in music."

" That's right as we were both surprises than negative effect it's the opposite effect when one -- as -- the other is low. How far -- did you look at this. I think it started 1958. Was as far back as billboard has the data -- what was happening editors in music and S&P 500 so. In the late fifties and early sixties it has sent people to -- was remarkably low. The market barely moved at all people didn't talk about the market that we we talked about it now you know and checking the Dow Jones -- what happened -- who cares nothing happened. But the songs we listen to the music was very complex think of like Ray Charles singing Georgia in my mind paying much higher benefits from -- ice -- Let's listen to that."

" So it would almost seem. What he needs stability in the market to be able to have creativity in music when."

" Theory is that it's the artists are not producing the music that they would otherwise produce some of the economic turbulence affects the creative part that's one possibility. I don't think that's the case because there's still a lot of variability in what music is produced. It would end -- not everyone has affected the same way I think the broad market trend comes in the mood of the people. Is such that the music they choose to listen to. Will select out the kind of music relative to the market so the next question is as which way does it go is it that the market influences future music decisions. We're just something about our musical preferences as a nation and as a world. Presage a pre date what will happen to the market leader what do you think."

" I would say dead our musical preferences -- sort of predictors."

" You're right I thought the other way but you're absolutely right if anything it seems that the music we listen to pre dates the market volatility are."

" In your researching mention of the songs on policy like pollute from 2003. Let's listen to a little -- that."

" That's one of the highest -- on full time and it sounds at that time 2003 that would predict. That the future of several years. Would have low market volatility and that's exactly what happened 200420052006. Were very -- market volatility years. Which was probably hard to remember thinking back you know their current environmental -- and there's very little volatility. And the but the music was more complex like Sean Paul's like -- so where -- we right now then. For whatever the the latest one of the top hits was leading our guys just stances very. -- variance on -- continue to. --"

" I'm wondering if in fact it seems as if musical preferences are almost predictors of what might happen in the market later what does -- suggest you exactly. As to what may be going on here."

" That's the that's -- really deep and -- in question and I don't know yet what the mechanism is how it translates from one to the other side. One person I talked to admit mentioned to me the following -- analogy that. I don't know if you're aware of this bit with hearts in your heart in your brain -- people who are about to have either stroke or or cardiac arrest. -- can measure the complexity of the heartbeat or of the brain activity and it seems that the complexity. Of both. Drops significantly right before crash in you know by analogy maybe there's something in the mood of the market. That we can sense that things are about to get really bad and we try to simplify our lives and their music."

" mining is an assistant professor of finance and risk engineering at the Polytechnic institute of New York University he's been talking with us about the way the billboard charts may be related to the S&P 500 stock index. Professor thanks very much for speaking -- that my pleasure thank you."